No Rear-view Mirror?

Then there's no hindsight, right? And no hindsight means no learning opportunity. At least that's my view. What am I talking about? Well... a few weeks ago, during February 2021, in the midst of the COVID crisis, Barbados was heating up with positive cases.

Responding to pressure from a Scientist the Prime Minister made a comment;

“But I don’t know that there is much to be gained at this time from focusing on the rear-view mirror. We have, as I said, to get ahead of this issue...”

This got me to thinking a little more deeply about Barbados and it struck me; History always tells a story…

… and I doubt that any of the Leaders across the globe looked in the rear-view mirror at, say for example, the Irag War, or World War 2, the 2008 crash and said “Nope, nothing to be gained from looking back at that!”

“In the last 20 years, we’ve had six significant threats – SARS, MERS, Ebola, Avian influenza and swine flu,” Prof Matthew Baylis from the University of Liverpool told BBC News. It’s not that long ago that Barbados had to deal with H1N1, right?

Be that as it may; that isn’t my main concern.

My observation is born out of this question; given just the last 12 years and the vulnerability of SIS's, what, if any, lesson learning, pandemic planning has been done in Barbados?

Where am I going with this?

We know the rear-view mirror tells us there is nothing new about the concept of pandemics and the potential catastrophic effect on Small Island States. We know this because we, and other nations, have been here before to a greater or lesser extent. That being said we should have had robust management philosophies for dealing with this type of event – to lessen the impact today.

But, to be honest, whatever has or hasn’t been done with pandemic planning that’s not the prominent thought in my mind. This goes back further than the last decade.

So, I may be alone in this next thought…

The last 40 years of previous administrations, including this one, and their Oppositions, in their infinite wisdom, made decisions that led Barbados to the edge of this cliff. I'm talking about Tourism. Why do I say that?

The risk profile of Tourism has always been in the Red Zone – a high risk based and volatile proposition that relies solely on the whims and personal choices of holiday makers. This shouldn’t be a surprise. But in Barbados it is one large egg which dwarfs other much smaller eggs in this basket – and the risk of that egg being smashed has never been mitigated. Add to that the desecration of Sugar production and the under-reliance on manufacturing and export and farming since the 80’s and what are you left with? An economic platform the basis of which forgets simple business principles – don’t just have one large egg in the basket. For example, can you imagine what our economic position would look like if Intel had stayed on the Island? I

If the governments of Barbados have always acknowledged an absolute obligation to insure, insulate and protect the future of its citizens (perhaps an unspoken virtue inherent in their position), then I would think that means looking back and taking a risk-based approach, some would say a Project Management approach, to Barbados. In my opinion this is even more essential given the precarious nature of the economy, Because, it is flawed thinking to rely so heavily on Tourism (which makes up 50ish% of the economy in real terms).

When, in December 2016, I stood on Cherry Tree Hill with my good friend Romell and looked out across Barbados. I said to him, “What would happen to Barbados if Tourism takes a serious hit?”

The ripple effect of this crisis has shown its reach - the decisions from the 80’s up to 2020 are revealing serious consequences now. Yet any savvy business strategy would know the consequences of over reliance on one product in a business.

The Result?

The good People of Barbados are reliant on their Government to protect their best interests. For my part it seems apparent to me that Barbados is 30 years behind where it should be. So when it is said “we’re all in this together” that’s not really true because generally Politicians can put food on the table without fear of loss most days. The effects of policy decisions which have serious economic effects is not going to dilute the Bds$4.5m that is paid to keep the Cabinet in work. The converse is true for most Barbadians – those today in this crisis who are losing their businesses, their livelihoods, their futures, their lives or maybe even their sanity because of the effects of flawed thinking and policy decisions. I doubt the average Bajan, my family members included, has been able to put much, if anything, in reserve to support a situation like this. And so a single father with a child is forced to break quarantine, dive for eggs to sell just so he can put a dish of food on the table for his son! For that privilege he is fined!

It is all well and good for the Government to take the steps it did to re-profile debt and then ask the nation where would we be today, in this situation, if we hadn’t done that. Perhaps the better question might be; where would we be now if successive governments had, with the benefit of the rear-view mirror, crafted economic policy that prepares Small Island States for the worst economic shocks.

So, what’s my real question?

Having said all that, there is a side issue that raises its head – what does it say about the highest office in the land which infers that a look back period serves no useful purpose?

If successive governments look back through the prism of risk-based spectacles they could prepare better for the future…

…Because flawed economic policy and one more economic shock, crisis pandemic, mis-managed or otherwise, stands a good chance of wiping out the people of Barbados.

Notwithstanding the last year, the incumbent Party cannot absolve itself of its involvement in 40 years of political history. This country’s economic profile is not, and never has been, soundly based. In my opinion, this country has not developed practical and economic stability over the last 40 years; even though GDP has gone from USD$1bn to $5bn since 1980.

Now, economically, the country has to start again. Barbados’ development has been put back years and requires more and more borrowing and investment.

Hindsight is not just a wonderful thing – it’s essential! A wise and discerning leader will make judicious use of it. It helps us with risk avoidance, mitigation and management and avoids making the same mistakes again and again.

One hopes that careful use of the rear-view mirror would help one to plot an effective course to the future. I for one use it whenever I switch lanes!

I think the great people of Barbados are well able to use their rear-view mirrors and their memories won’t fail them.